My aggravation with polls (and poll diaries) stems from the fact that the polls, in and of themselves, have absolutely nothing to do with policies and issues. All they tell us is who a bunch of people say they will vote for. If they are methodologically rigorous and conducted close to elections they can predict outcomes, but that doesn’t provide much grist for substantive debate.
And yet I understand why we fight about them.
The thing is, polls don’t just reflect voter preferences – they shape them. Some people who aren’t paying close attention to the issues use polls as proxies, making decisions about who to vote for based on who others say they will vote for. Polls can even influence subsequent polls, leading to polling trends wholly divorced from the merits of the candidates.
This means that serious candidates, and supporters of candidates, cannot ignore poll results. Bad poll results need to be discredited in the same way that bad policies need to be challenged. If a poll says a candidate is losing, one of the ways to fight the proxy poll war is to try to debunk the poll. If a polls says a candidate is winning, one of the ways to build even stronger support is to trumpet the results. Failure to fight the poll wars would be dereliction of duty.
This proxy war is always easier to fight from the side that is polling best. It doesn’t demand close scrutiny of the details or much concern with 538 rankings – it is often enough to say “look, look, we’re winning!” (which isn’t to say that every Clinton poll-watcher isn’t paying close attention – some of their poll analysis is very good). It is a far harder fight from the trailing side. It demands close attention to detail, and when the details don’t offer up much substance, it demands very creative, often questionable interpretations (which isn’t to say that every Sanders poll-watcher isn’t paying close attention – some of their poll analysis is also very good).
So I get it – but it still irritates the hell out of me that the politicization of poll data attracts so much attention. It irritates me even more when proxy poll war strategies result in outright misrepresentation in diaries, because it is based on the assumption that I’m not smart enough to know when I’m being misled. Worst of all, it is the ultimate in inauthenticity, and a distraction from the real political issues.