The Turkish shooting down of a Russian SU-24 bomber ramps up international tensions and brings the complexities of the Syrian and ISIS situation into sharp focus.
I’m not sure if we’ll ever know if the Russian plane was in Turkish airspace. Turkey says it was, Russia says it wasn’t, and both sides will be willing to lie about it. The United States provides independent confirmation that the Turkish air force followed protocols and warned the Russian aircraft to exit Turkish airspace, and that the Russians didn’t respond. Even if this is true (and it is probably verifiable, so probably true), if the Russian aircraft wasn’t in Turkish airspace, it doesn’t constitute a justification for the shoot-down.
A critical part of this story is what the Russians were up to in the region, and why the Turks weren’t happy about it.
The Russians were carrying out bombing raids in the Latakia province of Syria, along the Turkish border. They claim that their targets were Chechen terrorists who, to use Putin’s words, “could return to Russia at any moment.” Two such Chechen groups exist in Latakia, but they are thought to be very small –the only source I’ve found suggests their members number “in the tens.”
To me it seems noteworthy that Russia openly admits that its targets were not ISIS or even anti-Assad forces. In practice Russia is admitting to using the Syrian conflict as a justification to pursue domestic anti-terrorism policies across borders into Syria. Before the Metrojet Airline bombing, the Beirut bombings, and the Paris attacks, this sort of open admission might have been more inflammatory, but now any terrorist is fair game so the public obfuscation is unnecessary.
While Chechens may have been one target of the Russian attacks, there was probably a second target, and here is where Turkey’s interests enter the story.
There is plenty of evidence to suggest that Russia has been using the war on ISIS as an excuse to attack anti-Assad forces. The only significant military force in Latakia – and likely the main Russian target – is the 10,000-strong Syrian Turkmen Brigade. The Syrian Turkmen are a large ethnic minority that suffered grievous persecution under the Assad regime. Trained and armed by Turkey, they are a significant element of the Anti-Assad forces. They have no links to ISIS. If Turkey shot down the Russian SU-24 in Syrian airspace, the most likely reason to have done so would be to defend the Syrian Turkmen Brigade.
The big question is what comes next.
Russia is characterizing this event as a Turkish provocation intended to undermine Russian cooperation with the West in the war on terror. Here is how Putin describes it:
“We have long since established the fact that large amounts of oil and related products flow into Turkey from ISIS territory, from whence comes significant financial support for the formation of [terrorist groups]. And now [Turkey] stabs us in the back and shoots down our plane that was fighting terrorism…. If ISIS has so much money, tens or hundreds of millions, maybe billions of dollars, and they are protected by the armed forces of [Turkey], then it is understandable why [Turkey behaves] so boldly and brazenly….”
Here Putin is floating a bizarre and worrisome argument that Turkey is an agent of ISIS, brokering billions of dollars in ISIS oil sales. He argues that Turkey opposes Assad because Assad is a bulwark against ISIS. The attack on Russia is thus characterized as an attack on Assad, and consequently a defense of ISIS.
Notice that this twisted Russian account equates Russian cooperation with the West as, in practice, western support for Assad. It also provides Putin with a potential wedge to drive between Turkey and NATO. In the same statement Putin said:“Instead of immediately contacting [Russia], the Turkish side has addressed its concerns to its NATO partners, as though it were Russian that shot down their aircraft, and not they who shot down ours. Do they want to put NATO at the service of ISIS?”
There is no obvious good way forward:
- Putin cannot ignore the Turkish attack. His reputation and power at home are based on his strongman image. Already the Russian press is calling for a response.
- Russia is an important ally against ISIS, and without Russian cooperation it is very hard to imagine an acceptable resolution of the Syrian crisis.
- Erdogan also cannot back down, for many of the same reasons as Putin. Politically he cannot afford to look weak.
- And of course, Turkey is likewise an important ally against ISIS, and without Turkish cooperation it is very hard to imagine an acceptable resolution of the Syrian crisis.
- The U.S. is bound to Turkey by NATO, so the U.S. could not ignore tensions between Turkey and Russia even were there no Syrian crisis.
I have no idea what comes next.